FIFA World Cup 2026 Group G Preview: Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand

Group G carries one of the most compelling narratives of the entire tournament: Belgium's golden generation faces a final chance to convert two decades of individual brilliance into collective glory. Kevin De Bruyne at 35, Romelu Lukaku in what is almost certainly his last World Cup, Axel Witsel, Yannick Carrasco — a generation of exceptional players who have never won a major trophy together. Egypt with Mohamed Salah provide the main competition for second place. Iran and New Zealand complete a group that, analytically, belongs to two sides.

Group G at a Glance

Odds sourced from major sportsbooks as of June 2026.

Belgium — The Last Chapter

The numbers tell a paradoxical story. Belgium reached the 2018 World Cup semi-finals, the 2021 Euro quarter-finals, and the 2022 World Cup group stage exit. A squad that was consistently ranked among the world's top three could not win a tournament. The question of why has been debated extensively — the answer lies somewhere in the gap between individual quality and collective cohesion.

The 2026 squad represents the final iteration of this golden generation. Kevin De Bruyne, despite approaching the end of his career at the highest level, remains dangerous: his vision, passing range and ability to arrive late into scoring positions are undiminished. Lukaku, when fit and motivated, is a centre-forward who bullies defenders and scores. Jeremy Doku at 24 brings a new generation's energy and directness on the right flank.

Belgium's xG output in recent UEFA Nations League fixtures was 1.9 per match — an attacking platform that should be more than sufficient for Group G advancement. The concern is not output but consistency: Belgium have a history of poor tournament starts that require recovery.

xG projection (per match): 1.9 goals scored / 0.9 conceded

Egypt — The Salah Factor

Egypt at the 2026 World Cup is, analytically, a straightforward equation: how well is Mohamed Salah performing? At his peak — and at 34 he is still capable of peak-level performances for extended periods — Salah elevates Egypt from solid regional outfit to genuine second-place contender. His movement, finishing and ability to carry the ball through pressure are as elite as any forward at the tournament.

The challenge for Egypt is that Salah's supporting cast operates significantly below his level. If he is well-marked and well-managed — which Belgium and Iran will attempt — the rest of the Egyptian attacking structure struggles to create. Egypt will need Salah in form, and they will need to defend as a collective unit.

xG projection (per match): 1.3 goals scored / 1.2 conceded

Iran — Asian Resilience

Iran have become one of Asia's most consistent qualifiers and their 2022 tournament showed a side capable of competitive performances. Sardar Azmoun brings finishing quality from European club football. Their game model is physically robust, defensively compact and dangerous from set pieces. Iran beat Wales at the 2022 World Cup and will aim for a similar result against New Zealand here. Second place is a stretch; competitive performances are the realistic target.

xG projection (per match): 1.0 goals scored / 1.4 conceded

New Zealand — The Brave Debutants

New Zealand's qualification through the OFC pathway and subsequent inter-confederation playoff brings the All Whites back to the World Cup for the first time since 2010. Chris Wood — a proven Premier League and European goal-scorer — gives them genuine attacking quality. The team's spirit and collective work rate exceed their technical limitations. A draw would be celebrated as a historic achievement.

xG projection (per match): 0.7 goals scored / 1.8 conceded

Key Match: Belgium vs Egypt

Belgium vs Egypt is the group's defining fixture: De Bruyne against Salah, two of the Premier League's most celebrated players of their era, potentially in their last World Cup together. Both sides know that losing this match puts enormous pressure on their qualification campaign. Belgium's deeper squad and tactical flexibility give them a structural advantage. Salah's individual capacity to decide a match single-handedly is the variable that could swing it either way. This match will be watched by hundreds of millions globally — for the narrative alone, if nothing else.

Qualification Prediction

FAQ

Q.Will Belgium finally win something at the 2026 World Cup?

Belgium have a genuinely achievable path to the semi-finals from Group G — the knockout bracket opens up significantly from their side of the draw. But their historical pattern suggests they will progress in the group and face a difficult last-sixteen or quarter-final. The talent is there; the question is the same it has always been.

Q.How dangerous is Mohamed Salah at the 2026 World Cup?

Extremely dangerous. Salah is one of the three or four most lethal forwards at the tournament when on form. His ability to score against any goalkeeper, in any context, makes Egypt a legitimate second-place contender whenever he is performing at his level.

Q.What are Belgium's World Cup 2026 odds?

Belgium are priced around +2000 to win the tournament — reflecting genuine squad quality and a golden-generation motivation factor, but also skepticism based on their historical inability to win when the pressure is highest.

Q.Can Iran advance from the 2026 World Cup Group G?

Iran need both Belgium and Egypt to drop points against each other and against Iran. Analytically possible but unlikely. Their realistic target is a competitive performance and potentially a third-place finish ahead of New Zealand.

Sources: ESPN World Cup 2026 Squad Lists | CBS Sports World Cup Predictions